Periodo 2004-05 → 2026-07. Capitale iniziale 49,945 €. Costi IBKR, tasse in dichiarativo.
| Strategia | CAGR netto | Volatilità | Sharpe | Max DD | Peggior anno | Recupero (mesi) | Liquidazione netta |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pivot5 | 6.1% | 9.5% | 0.67 | -20.7% | -12.3% | 42 | 175,524 € |
| Blend 40/60 | 7.9% | 10.7% | 0.77 | -35.5% | -26.1% | 58 | 228,643 € |
| VWCE | 8.9% | 13.4% | 0.70 | -49.7% | -37.5% | 69 | 255,596 € |
Costo di costi+tasse: 2.72% di CAGR l'anno (lordo 8.8% → netto 6.1%).
| Strategia | Rolling 3a min | mediana | max |
|---|---|---|---|
| Pivot5 | -4.1% | 4.5% | 14.2% |
| Blend 40/60 | -10.8% | 7.6% | 17.9% |
| VWCE | -17.6% | 10.1% | 21.2% |
| Anno | Pivot5 | Blend 40/60 | VWCE |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 2.2% | 1.5% | 1.0% |
| 2005 | 27.5% | 27.0% | 26.6% |
| 2006 | 8.6% | 7.9% | 7.4% |
| 2007 | -0.1% | -1.6% | -2.7% |
| 2008 | -8.9% | -26.1% | -37.5% |
| 2009 | 9.5% | 20.6% | 28.0% |
| 2010 | 15.2% | 19.1% | 21.7% |
| 2011 | 0.1% | -2.9% | -4.9% |
| 2012 | 5.8% | 11.1% | 14.6% |
| 2013 | 5.5% | 12.6% | 17.4% |
| 2014 | 16.9% | 17.3% | 17.5% |
| 2015 | -3.5% | 4.1% | 9.1% |
| 2016 | 4.5% | 8.9% | 11.8% |
| 2017 | 3.6% | 6.9% | 9.1% |
| 2018 | -5.5% | -5.8% | -6.0% |
| 2019 | 14.6% | 23.4% | 29.3% |
| 2020 | -1.0% | 2.9% | 5.5% |
| 2021 | 30.7% | 28.9% | 27.7% |
| 2022 | -12.3% | -13.0% | -13.4% |
| 2023 | -1.6% | 9.8% | 17.4% |
| 2024 | 13.3% | 19.5% | 23.6% |
| 2025 | 7.9% | 7.9% | 7.9% |
| 2026 | 12.4% | 13.4% | 14.1% |
| Anno | Imposta 26% | IVAFE |
|---|---|---|
| 2004 | 106 € | 103 € |
| 2005 | 748 € | 132 € |
| 2006 | 461 € | 143 € |
| 2007 | 3,228 € | 148 € |
| 2008 | 1,741 € | 132 € |
| 2009 | 903 € | 143 € |
| 2010 | 2,893 € | 168 € |
| 2011 | 1,890 € | 166 € |
| 2012 | 2,156 € | 177 € |
| 2013 | 772 € | 183 € |
| 2014 | 2,029 € | 216 € |
| 2015 | 6,149 € | 217 € |
| 2016 | 2,639 € | 220 € |
| 2017 | 219 € | 222 € |
| 2018 | 2,520 € | 215 € |
| 2019 | 2,895 € | 246 € |
| 2020 | 940 € | 240 € |
| 2021 | 1,484 € | 314 € |
| 2022 | 5,333 € | 284 € |
| 2023 | 254 € | 269 € |
| 2024 | 2,499 € | 309 € |
| 2025 | 2,220 € | 333 € |
| 2026 | 809 € | 371 € |
Run diagnostica in USD lordo (periodo diverso dalla fonte): CAGR 9.7% vs 10.6% della fonte; max drawdown -9.9% vs -16.9%.
Log completo in trades_pivot5.csv.
| date | asset | side | qty | price | value | cost | tax |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-12-31 | CORP_IG | SELL | 119.656258 | 243.565272 | 29144.108896 | 26.315287 | 0.000000 |
| 2024-12-31 | EM_EQ | BUY | 52.237463 | 556.909133 | 29091.520392 | 26.273216 | 0.000000 |
| 2025-03-31 | US_EQ | SELL | 37.561615 | 784.041494 | 29449.864581 | 26.559892 | 2013.851736 |
| 2025-03-31 | GOLD | SELL | 7.117358 | 825.075580 | 5872.358254 | 7.697887 | 0.000000 |
| 2025-03-31 | REIT | SELL | 59.859551 | 498.974189 | 29868.370857 | 26.894697 | 206.408014 |
| 2025-03-31 | INTL_EQ | BUY | 86.234617 | 353.864933 | 30515.407054 | 27.412326 | 0.000000 |
| 2025-03-31 | COMMOD | BUY | 151.875271 | 200.924133 | 30515.407054 | 27.412326 | 0.000000 |
| 2025-04-30 | EM_EQ | SELL | 52.237463 | 532.005908 | 27790.639097 | 25.232511 | 0.000000 |
| 2025-04-30 | HY | SELL | 110.103184 | 263.545933 | 29017.246312 | 26.213797 | 0.000000 |
| 2025-04-30 | COMMOD | SELL | 151.875271 | 174.650400 | 26525.076768 | 24.220061 | 0.000000 |
| 2025-05-31 | US_EQ | BUY | 37.310506 | 787.821904 | 29394.034214 | 26.515227 | 0.000000 |
| 2025-05-31 | EM_EQ | BUY | 52.964624 | 554.974853 | 29394.034214 | 26.515227 | 0.000000 |
| 2025-07-31 | COMMOD | BUY | 135.377069 | 189.306530 | 25627.763214 | 23.502211 | 0.000000 |
| 2025-08-31 | COMMOD | SELL | 135.377069 | 183.847402 | 24888.722499 | 22.910978 | 0.000000 |
| 2025-10-31 | GOLD | SELL | 3.530141 | 985.984167 | 3480.662933 | 5.784530 | 0.000000 |
| 2025-10-31 | COMMOD | BUY | 148.217181 | 191.037488 | 28315.037893 | 25.652030 | 0.000000 |
| 2025-12-31 | COMMOD | SELL | 148.217181 | 189.699419 | 28116.712991 | 25.493370 | 0.000000 |
| 2026-01-31 | GOLD | SELL | 3.754481 | 1154.931828 | 4336.169902 | 6.468936 | 0.000000 |
| 2026-01-31 | COMMOD | BUY | 146.069666 | 204.291677 | 29840.817158 | 26.872654 | 0.000000 |
| 2026-05-31 | EM_EQ | SELL | 6.800152 | 832.614862 | 5661.907750 | 7.529526 | 490.878520 |
| 2026-05-31 | GOLD | BUY | 4.996044 | 1107.815765 | 5534.695987 | 7.427757 | 0.000000 |
| 2026-06-30 | INTL_EQ | SELL | 9.171449 | 487.367753 | 4469.868329 | 6.575895 | 318.347708 |
| 2026-06-30 | GOLD | SELL | 34.696406 | 999.731588 | 34687.092639 | 30.749674 | 0.000000 |
| 2026-06-30 | REIT | BUY | 71.509064 | 525.221578 | 37558.103309 | 33.046483 | 0.000000 |
Questo contenuto ha finalità esclusivamente informative e didattiche e non costituisce consulenza finanziaria, raccomandazione personalizzata né sollecitazione all'investimento. I rendimenti passati e i risultati di backtest non sono indicativi di risultati futuri. Le assunzioni fiscali riflettono un caso specifico (regime dichiarativo) e possono non applicarsi alla tua situazione. Strategia originale: investlab.substack.com. Replica, codice e verifiche: Federico Caruso. Vedi anche le note legali.